The German Conference of the Ministers of Education of the
Länder (KMK) forecasts that university enrolments will
continue to stay high until 2025. This year, records were broken
when 515.833 students registered themselves, a 25% over 2008. For
the future, this number is expected to decline slightly to 490.000
in 2013 and then level to 414.000 in 2025, still significantly
above the 400.000 of the base year 2005.
The KMK identified a number of factors that contribute
significantly to this trend. While a higher output from high
schools and the de-facto
termination of military drafts were already highlighted in the
past, the KMK says that also more and more students from abroad and
with vocational background opt for higher education. The number of
students with a foreign high school diploma for instance increased
from 57.000 in 2009 to 71.000 in 2010, a growth of 24,5%.
€7 billion extra needed for quality until
The new DAAD head, Margret Wintermantel, commented
that "the most recent KMK forecasts confirm our view: an increasing
number of young people opt for higher education and this is a
long-term trend. Accordingly, we have to make funds available to
universities that have to cope with this development."
"Our calculations indicate that only until 2015 there will be €7
billion needed to maintain quality in education as part of the
"Hochschulpakt II". Given this long-term trend, we also need to
find a sustainable solution that reaches well beyond 2020."