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  • Ground zero after euro exit

    - What will happen to Greece if it leaves the Eurozone? Cross-border expert Vangelis Tsiligiris draws a dire scenario for the country’s universities. He warns of the consequences of further austerity, a permanent brain drain and a reform deadlock.

    "The scenario of Greece leaving the euro has become increasingly popular over the past few months and has gained even more momentum following the outcome of the recent Greek elections. The narrative about a possible Grexit usually involves looking at macroeconomic consequences within Greece itself and the Eurozone in its entirety. A big fear is that Greece leaving the euro could trigger a domino effect in the periphery of the Eurozone and the so-called P.I.G.S. Nevertheless, for those like me, who are interested in higher education policy the Grexit scenario imposes some specific challenges for Greek higher education.

    No euro and further austerity

    First, we have to realize that Greek higher education is solely funded and dependent on government funding. Greek higher education institutions (HEIs) are not familiar with generating funding from other income sources (i.e. research, partnerships and collaborations). Additionally, the degree of internationalisation of Greek higher education institutions is pretty low. This is mainly due to their failure to offer programmes in languages other than Greek and their inability to develop their international reputation. This has reduced significantly the number of international students who currently study in Greek HEIs as well as the short-term prospects for attracting international students.

    Therefore, in a Greek exit scenario where Greece will have to, most likely, violently rationalize its public expenditure so as to cover the existing government primary deficit, Greek HEIs will see their budgets cut or even disappear without being able to source funding from alternative sources. It is very likely that several Greek higher education institutions will close as they will be unable to source their operating funding needs.

    Permanent brain drain will be the norm

    Second, the brain-drain of Greece, which is currently booming, will worsen. The outflow of talented and well educated Greeks has already started in 2010 when it was announced that Greece will seek the contribution of the IMF and the EU mechanism (The Economist, 2012). Since then a great number of young Greeks has been leaving the country on a daily basis. I anticipate that a possible Grexit will significantly worsen this phenomenon and trigger even more young people to seek employment abroad.

    What would be even more problematic, I think, is that a possible Greek exit will change the intentions of those who leave the country. So far, young Greeks emigrate with the prospect of return some time in the near future after the easing of macroeconomic and fiscal austerity. If Greece exists the Eurozone, young Greeks will anticipate a significantly lower degree of possibilities for recovery in the medium to long-term, thus they will choose to stay longer or even permanently abroad. This will have an added negative effect on both Greek economy and society. It will be of similar magnitude as the one created by the continuous harsh austerity and could ultimately initiate a 'death spiral'.

    Modernization or deadlock

    Third and most important to me, a Greek exit from the euro will mean the loss of an important opportunity for modernization of Greek higher education and its long-awaited compliance with the European Union policy and guidelines. For long, Greek higher education has been subject to severe criticism for its lack of accountability, low quality standards and programmes which fail to recognise the needs of contemporary labour markets (OECD, 2011; International Committee, 2010).

    The "Memorandum of Understanding on Specific Economic Policy Conditionality" which accompanied the bail-out loans by the Troika included significant reforms for higher education. These reforms along with the new legal framework introduced by the former education minister Anna Diamantopoulou have yet to be implemented. It is anticipated that an exit from the euro will mean a delay or even the abandonment of these long-awaited reforms.

    Overall, a possible Grexit will mean an immediate negative financial impact and a medium to longer term policy/strategic disorientation of Greek higher education coupled with devastating consequences on brain-drain dynamics."

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