The world in 2052

8 mei 2012 - What will the world look like 40 years from now? A research by the Club of Rome predicts a population of 8.1 billion, growing poverty and inequity in the West, the rise of China and BRISE and the arrival of global warming. “We need a governance system that takes a long-term view,” lead author Jorgen Randers says.

For the first time in over 40 years the "Club of Rome" published a report forecasting the economic, social and environmental state of the world. Under the title "2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years", Jorgen Randers from the Norwegian School of Management led a research effort that warns of "the possibility that humankind might not survive on the planet if it continues on its path of over-consumption and short-termism."

The Club of Rome is a non-profit organization founded in 1968. Nowadays, it consists of 100 intellectuals from over 30 national and regional associations. The publication of its most recent study directly precedes the upcoming United Nations Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) in Brazil.

Predictions by the report

The report makes a number of remarkable predictions regarding fundamental characteristics of the world in 2052. Speaking at the presentation of the report in Rotterdam, Professor Sanders said that "we need a system of governance that takes a more long-term view. It is unlikely that governments will pass necessary regulation to force the markets to allocate more money into climate friendly solutions, and we must not assume that markets will work for the benefit of humankind."

• Global population will peak at 8.1 billion humans in 2042, because of falling fertility in urban areas.
• Worldwide GDP will grow slower than expected. In 2050, global GDP will only 2.2 larger than today.
• Productivity gains will also be lower than in the past as many economies will reach their maximum capacity and social and climate disruptions will impede further advancements.
• Developed rich countries like the U.S. will increasingly have to deal with greater poverty and income inequality following the "triumph of financial capitalism". Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and ten leading emerging economies (referred to as 'BRISE' in the Report) will progress. All countries will face consequences from a deteriorating environment.
• There will still be 3 billion poor in 2052.
• CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to grow and cause +2°C in 2052; temperatures will reach +2.8°C in 2080, which may well trigger self-reinforcing climate change.

The way forward

Apart from forecasting these fundamental variables, the report also offers a way forward. What goals should be pursued to create a "sustainable, equitable and 'happier' world"?

1. Societal values, which are essential for a sustainable and equitable society, are fully reflected in all economic decisions.
2. The economies of the world reflect the value of natural and social capital, markets operate in a fair and transparent manner and deliver the goods and services required for a sustainable society.
3. A more equitable distribution of income both within and between countries.
4. Access to meaningful work, which provides enough income to lead a decent life, is guaranteed and recognized as an essential human right. Job generation has become a top priority for all investments, costs for unemployment are considered in decision-making.
5. Ecology is seen as a binding constraint for all forms of human activity and is
   therefore managed in a  manner which reflects its biophysical and economic value. Never should the world be in overshoot.
6. Appropriate governance systems at a local, national and global level, which can manage the transition into an equitable and sustainable global world, are established.