Already in 2006 (World Cup, Italy), 2008 (Euro Cup, Spain) and
2010 (World Cup, Spain) German researchers successfully forecasted
who would win the major soccer tournament. The team from FU
Berlin and DIW Berlin created an economic model which takes into
account market value of individual players and overall homogeneity
of entire teams.
Strong correlation between market value and
performance
Report authors, Jürgen Gerhards, Michael Mutz
und Gert Wagner, argue that following the lifting of international
transfer barriers the global market for soccer talent has become
increasingly efficient. In addition to that, scouts, managers and
trainers permanently observe talented players. Both factors would
make it possible to approximate performance of individual players
by their market value.
To support this hypothesis, the researchers gathered data from
25 leagues tracing total market value of soccer teams and their
success in points gained. They managed to establish the following
relationship:
The second important factor is homogeneity of the team. If the
market value of individual team members varies too much, a single
red card or an injured top player may shift the balance. Data on
both factors was used to create the following rank.
According to these forecasts, Spain has the greatest chances of
winning the EuroCup. This is due to its very balanced team and
great total market value. Germany comes in second and will face
Italy on Thursday ranking on place 5. Before that on Wednesday,
Portugal (place 7) competes with Spain in the semi-finals.
The complete research report by DIW Berlin and Freie
Universität Berlin you may find here