Nederland op de weg terug naar groei

Nieuws | de redactie

25 oktober 2010 | De Nederlandse economie behoort tot de drie minst slecht presterende in de EU. Maar ons land moet zowel zijn tekorten als zijn binnenlandse vraag impulsen geven. De 2010 Euro Monitor van de Lisbon Council komt voor het debat over de regeringsverklaring op een perfect moment. Aanbevolen wordt besparingsmaatregelen zo snel mogelijk te vervolgen door hervormingen richting de kenniseconomie.

De nieuwe studie van Allianz en de Lisbon Council wijster op, dat zelfs Duitsland bij het verrassend pittige herstelvan het voorbije jaar zich niet een economische topper mag noemen.De noodzakelijke 2% groei om uit de crisis en schulden te rakenweet ook Duitsland in 2011 niet te halen,bijvoorbeeld. Nederland doet het verhoudingsgewijs niet slecht-met dank aan Balkenende IV blijkbaar- en verrassend sterk komenenkele nieuwe landen binnen de EU uit de crisis: Slowakije enSlovenië. 

De Euro Monitor meldt onder meer: ‘Austria, Germany, theNetherlands and Luxembourg perform fairly well, but the first threecould do more to boost their domestic demand growth. In addition,Austria, Germany and the Netherlands need to improve theirdebt-to-GDP ratios that in all cases exceed the Maastricht ceilingof 60%. Moreover, the Netherlands gets a poor rating for itsgovernment deficit, while Luxembourg could do better on the unitlabour cost front.

France does relatively poorly, ranking No. 8, a sobering outcomefor one of Europe’s most important economies. It urgently needs toimprove its general government deficit (where it only receives arating of 2, tied with Portugal and Greece), unemployment (where itreceives a rating of 3, tied with Portugal), labour productivity,share of global merchandise trade and debt-to-GDP-ratio ofnon-financial corporations. It also has a merely averageperformance in most other indicators, with the exception of unitlabour costs, where its No. 3 position and score of 8 put it wellabove the eurozone average.

For the most part, Italy is rated in the lower to middling sectionin 2010 and should not therefore be counted among the circle ofvulnerable EMU countries such as Greece, Ireland, Spain andPortugal. However, Italy lags clearly behind the other majoreurozone economies, Germany and France, who outperform Italy onmost counts.’

Prof. Dr. Michael Heise, chief economist van Allianz SE en eopsteller van de achtergrondstudie bij de monitor zegt hierover:”Since the introduction of the euro large imbalances have developedin the union that threaten to undermine the credibility of the euroif not addressed decisively. For one, virtually all eurozonecountries still face a massive task in getting their publicfinances back in order. Any retreat or perceived problems inprogressing on this front is likely to weigh down the euro.Forceful and credible consolidation and reform programmes on thepart of debt-laden countries need to be urgently implemented.

There is furthermore a pressing need for improvement in the fieldsof structural competitiveness and productivity. We think theExcessive Imbalance Procedure proposed by the European Commissionprovides a good tool for preventing and correcting imbalances. Butin the end the responsibility for solving the current crisisremains with national governments and the underlying imbalanceswill take resolute action, decisive leadership and commondetermination.”