Not choosing but seducing
Not all high-income countries are equally successful in ‘directing immigration flows’. In a recent advice to the Dutch government, Demetrios Papademetriou (president of the Brussels’ Migration Policy Institute) predicts a modest increase of migration to high-income countries in the next ten years, while the BRICs-plus countries (including Turkey, Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia) will enter the stage as major players in the scramble for talent.
Papademetriou and the other authors of the publication state that governments need a long term strategy on labour migration, analysing the economic developments and forecasting the specific needs. As the competition becomes fiercer, the need for clever strategies increases.
Similar demographics in the Balkans
Migration is primarily a regional issue. Unfortunately for the EU the Balkan countries cannot offer much help, because of their broadly similar demographic. Demographically, the Middle Eastern and North African countries are much more promising.
“Most immigration systems however ignore the key question: how do the ‘super skilled’ make their choice?”
The presence of other talent is decisive
From surveys, interviews and collaborative projects with people in both the sending and receiving countries, Papademetriou has derived a clear set of variables that affects the selected migration destination.
The first group of variables (presence of other talented people, research infrastructure) is the most important from the perspective of the potential immigrant. The variables in the second group (socio-economic context, tolerance in society) are also important, but to a lesser degree.
The third group of variables relate to the immigration regulations, is not the most important from the viewpoint of the immigrant, but most easily to influence by receiving governments.
A dual administrative challenge
Papademetriou: “In today’s globalized world, Europe’s high-income countries will face demographic decline, so they will increasingly compete for skilled migrants. The rate of migration has increased but moderate or even poor results of the immigration policies have fuelled fear of migration in societies. Therefore, governments must now redouble efforts towards a dual administrative challenge: smart investment in the integration of immigrants to promote upward mobility, and orderly and flexible regulated legal migration combined with a robust approach to illegal migration.”
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